Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 22.305187 24.226304 26.292590 28.689752 31.406196 34.402960 37.978435
2026-01-25 19.099287 21.700719 24.686098 28.402279 32.956457 38.425923 45.601464
2026-02-01 16.957167 19.947592 23.558297 28.317803 34.549926 42.617793 54.179424
2026-02-08 15.313432 18.514373 22.539728 28.102309 35.808724 46.470240 63.053127
2026-02-15 14.016028 17.328306 21.635741 27.830268 36.843281 50.079182 72.311441
2026-02-22 12.976588 16.347753 20.858671 27.574441 37.781612 53.614863 82.237619
2026-03-01 12.148543 15.558645 20.238137 27.425310 38.796079 57.371726 93.468594
2026-03-08 11.428032 14.846604 19.642336 27.214938 39.639609 60.939983 105.329383
2026-03-15 11.118809 14.679436 19.801153 28.151297 42.452229 68.445006 127.618317
2026-03-22 10.552266 14.092981 19.278853 27.933775 43.238874 72.331590 143.411420
2026-03-29 10.092461 13.628155 18.897332 27.893877 44.315128 76.978951 162.945728
2026-04-05 9.757290 13.324118 18.735026 28.194391 46.047102 83.344011 190.086494
2026-04-12 9.337012 12.871630 18.315323 28.027383 46.900458 88.100375 215.622172
2026-04-19 8.940573 12.432878 17.886959 27.803793 47.615309 92.743463 243.912481
2026-04-26 8.610008 12.077424 17.568748 27.746495 48.664364 98.487035 280.475801
2026-05-03 8.280647 11.704827 17.195357 27.548158 49.382304 103.592032 319.009397
2026-05-10 7.966626 11.339670 16.809755 27.288571 49.926906 108.399314 361.065507
2026-05-17 7.678638 11.001694 16.448683 27.041924 50.465342 113.366775 409.659704
2026-05-24 7.428281 10.712610 16.153880 26.897821 51.222882 119.240806 471.184047
2026-05-31 7.185709 10.424607 15.843302 26.693557 51.807694 124.790109 539.629225
2026-06-07 7.127318 10.439658 16.069738 27.604816 55.302361 141.265768 721.552109
2026-06-14 6.908694 10.173654 15.772583 27.393298 55.889453 147.822514 839.754322
2026-06-21 6.727448 9.963273 15.564990 27.354524 56.933682 156.554486 1009.196804